The 20 – 30 percent share of revenue claimed by Uber and other branded service marketplaces has always been unsustainably high. Undercutting Uber by increasing pay to drivers or decreasing costs for riders is first of many approaches to expect. Driver retention is as big a problem as rider conversion for Uber, Lyft and Juno, the last actually offering shares to drivers to keep them working for the service.
Uber’s outsize commission could allow rivals to undercut its business by offering drivers a larger share of fares. The risk is theoretical now, but nearly everything must go flawlessly for Uber to justify its $69 billion valuation.